Worst quarter for the USD in seven years…

  • The US Dollar faced in Q2 2017 the worst quarter in seven years pushing EURUSD above 1.14, with trend resistance coming in around the 1.1450-level. Although the Euro zone surprise index has fallen, macro data is still performing relatively better than in the US and lack political progress in the US is keeping the economy in check. Stocks are keeping up well despite some correction from the May highs (especially in EU indices).
  • With the USD on the retreat, GBPUSD pushed towards 2017 highs at 1.3050-area, where a close above would open up for a test of 1.3120. USDJPY is performing well on back of BoJ not following the hawkish footsteps of ECB/FED.
  • We have a heavy macro week ahead and minutes from the FOMC on Wednesday as well as the ECB minutes on Thursday will attract attention – focus will be on the timeline of the reduction of QE measures for both central banks as well as inflationary pressures (or the lack of).
  • The RBA and the Swedish Riskbank will announce interest rates on Tuesday, but we expect no changes in the leading rates.
  • The week finishes with the US June Labor market report, where the NFP is expected at 179k vs. 138k prior. The unemployment is expected unchanged at 4.3%.
Read the full publication here!: 20170703 – weekly

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